Could this season's UCL revenue offset Milan missing out on top four? [Bonus article]
AC Milan are in the Champions League semi-finals and celebrations are in full swing ahead of the Derby della Madonnina against Inter. In the league, on other hand, things haven’t gone quite as well and the Rossoneri even risk missing out on a top-four finish. The question is, can the UCL success offset that, financially speaking?
Stefano Pioli’s men have certainly done really well in the Champions League, finishing second in the group and then knocking out Tottenham as well as Napoli in the knockout phase. And indeed, they have a real chance of making it to the final, which would increase the revenue (currently at €125m) even more.
The question, then, is if the success in this season’s Champions League can offset missing out on qualification for next season. Juventus’ 15-point penalty has been revoked as we await a new trial for the case, but it’s possible that the new penalty will come into effect next season instead. As a result, Milan are currently in 5th place, three points behind Roma and six points behind Juve.
As mentioned earlier, Milan have collected a total of €125m from the competition this season, which includes the prize money from UEFA and the ticket sales from the home games. Reaching the final would secure an additional €15.5m in prize money, or €20m if the Rossoneri were to win the whole competition.
Milan would likely get around 20k tickets for the final and the price would likely be set at €100 per ticket on average. Then there are also other sponsorship deals specifically for the final, as well as tickets that UEFA will put up on general sale. For all of the revenue related to the final, 93.5% of the revenue will go to the clubs. In short, it would be a lot more than just the €15.5-20m in prize money.
Forgetting about the final for a moment, though, we can take a look at the €125m Milan already have secured and see if it can ‘offset’ missing out on the Champions League for next season - financially speaking. We actually have a very good ‘low revenue’ example in Milan’s return to the Champions League, finishing last in the group.
For that adventure, in 2021/22 that is, the Rossoneri collected a total of €45m in prize money. Due to COVID constraints, they couldn’t sell to the maximum capacity tickets-wise but they did collect €10m for the three games against Atletico Madrid, Liverpool and Porto. A total of €55m, therefore.
Obviously, it was a rather disastrous attempt and Milan would surely do a lot better than that if they were to qualify next season. However, they will likely end up in pot 3 or 4 for the draw, which means that an exit already after the group stage isn’t completely impossible.
For the sake of the argument, though, let’s assume that Milan would make it through to the round of 16 and not further. Based on the numbers from this season, that would result in a total figure of €85m. Although making it out of the group isn’t certain, we can at least be sure that Milan would lose €60m straight away without the Champions League.
But given that Milan have collected €125m this season, it would soften the blow. We must also add the potential revenue from Europa League, as Milan could probably collect around €18m in prize money if they reach the quarters. €2.8m extra for the semis, €4.6-8.6m for the final. The tickets will have to be priced a lot lower, though, and there will be a lot less interest. So a rough estimate if they reach the quarters would be less than half of this season, i.e. €16m in ticket sales.
It goes without saying that a European run worth €34-46m is a lot different to one worth €125m. And that was clear already from the start. But regarding the big question from the start - could this season's UCL success offset Milan missing out on top four? - the answer is both yes and no.
Yes in that sense that the revenue has been so high from this season (more than double the 2021/22 UCL run) that Milan can afford a less successful season, not to mention the Europa League ‘bandaid revenue’. Combining the two seasons, the Rossoneri would collect around €160m (could be more depending on how far they make it), which isn’t bad at all.
Europa League outcome
2022/23 UCL revenue = €125m (at least)
2023/24 EL revenue = €34m (reaching quarters, estimate)
Total = €159m
No, however, in the sense that it’s unlikely Milan would have a poor run in the competition next season and thus a lot of money would be lost out on. There could also be a knock-on effect for sponsorships, even if Milan have locked in their current agreements over several years. But it could definitely be tougher to secure hefty sponsorships without Champions League, even if the club’s brand is very strong on its own.
Champions League outcome
2022/23 UCL revenue = €125m (at least)
2023/24 UCL revenue = €85m (reaching round of 16, estimate)
Total = €210m
Sporting-wise, it would also be a step back for Milan after finally making it back and actually performing on the big stage as well. In short, missing out on a top-four finish would cost the club a lot no matter how you spin it.