Evolution or revolution? What Milan's last five summers tell us [Bonus Article]
What do the last five summer windows tell us about Milan? The Rossoneri could perhaps go against the trend in the upcoming mercato...
Evolution or revolution? This seems to be the standard question as soon as the summer rolls around, at least in recent years. I will try to answer it myself since the end of the season is approaching, drawing on the last five transfer windows to try to make sense of what path Milan should take.
I think we can all agree that it has been a pretty good season so far, despite the short-lived Champions League scare for about a week (or did I just say too much?!). Milan have been turned upside down compared to 2024-25, both in terms of personnel and performance, leaving us with a sense of solidity ahead of what could be an important summer. And that’s good, right?
Actually, there’s probably no consensus among the Milan fans on whether this has been a good season or not. Some will take the glass-half-full approach and point to the aforementioned turnaround, while others will take the glass-half-empty approach and point to Inter’s position at the top. Both are valid takes, but to make progress, you probably need to land somewhere in between.
After all, changing everything yet again this summer sounds incredibly foolish, especially since there is a foundation to build on. Massimiliano Allegri wants to stay, the players adore him, the directors have found a somewhat better way of co-existing (or?), and the relationship with the fans is on the mend. Then again, improvements are clearly still needed.
It’s probably fair to say that there are multiple right answers in this situation, but can we learn anything from previous years? A few days back, I realised that the movement from the last five transfer windows is probably the best data we have for being able to decide the upcoming mercato. Will there just be some finishing touches as part of an evolution, or will there be many hellos and goodbyes in another revolution?
Short Version
For this article, I decided to focus on meaningful movements, which can be defined as arrivals or departures that actually affect the team. For example, a player going out on loan again would not be included as a departure, as that technically wouldn’t change anything from the previous season.
On average, Milan have had 8.2 arrivals and 9.6 departures each summer in the last five years. There have also been spikes of over 10 arrivals and departures twice, with 10+13 in 2023 and 11+11 in 2025. I would recommend scrolling down a little to have a look at the graphic yourself.
The above definitely suggests that there has been far too much movement in the last five summers. While player trading is an important method for Italian clubs to stay afloat financially, it only really works if the core of the squad remains strong and consistent, as pitch performance is at risk otherwise.
For once, Milan have an opportunity to build on a solid foundation by adding some missing pieces and offloading some outcasts. Quality must be prioritised over quantity this summer, and perhaps most importantly, the requests of Allegri must be heard.
Last five summers: too many revolutions?
First of all, I need to explain what I mean by movement in the last five summer transfer windows. In simple terms, I have counted the number of meaningful arrivals and departures of each summer in an attempt to determine if Milan tend to shift a lot of players. A high number of arrivals and departures would suggest that, while a low number would do the opposite.
I decided to bold the word meaningful there as I had quite a few caveats to consider. There’s usually a lot of movement every summer but not all of these have an actual impact on the team. For example, if a player who was signed on loan with an option to buy in the previous summer is redeemed by Milan, you can’t really count that as an addition in the year after (even if, on paper, the permanent signing is made then).
