A tie with no proper favourite [Newsletter]

The big week has arrived. Tomorrow evening, Wednesday that is, AC Milan will take on Napoli in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals. Both sides are optimistic about making it through to the semis and that should make for two very interesting games.

Stefano Pioli decided to make some rotation against Empoli, more specifically five changes, and it backfired as Milan were held to a 0-0 draw at San Siro. Napoli, meanwhile, fielded their usual XI and claimed all three points away at Lecce. Of course, as we have learned at this point, the Champions League has little to do with the league.

With the 4-0 trashing at the Maradona having taken place just one week ago, that game is probably on more people’s minds ahead of Wednesday's clash rather than the results this past weekend. The draw against Empoli matters little for Milan in that sense, even if a win was needed for the top-four race.

Making it through to the semis is important for both teams (obviously) not just because of the bragging rights, but also the financial side of things. In fact, should Milan make it through, then they would bank an additional €21.5m and that is excluding the final amount from the market pool 2 (which could be an extra couple of million or so).

It goes without saying that Milan also need to qualify for next campaign’s Champions League but either way, a ticket to the semis would be huge financially. This inevitable pressure is something that the players must cope with, and the reality is probably that the team that succeeds at this will win the tie.

Milan have the Champions League in their DNA and they have done well in that competition this season as well. Napoli may not have that history, but they have a very capable manager and a well-drilled squad. The support of each set of fans should make this very special, that’s for sure.

Of course, Napoli have been dealt a blow in the sense that Victor Osimhen and Giovanni Simeone (90% likelihood) will miss out on the game. The remaining striker Giacomo Raspadori is also struggling with a minor issue, but he could make it in time. With this in mind, as well as the recent 4-0 trashing, you can’t say that Napoli 100% are the favourites to win the tie (as was the case straight after the draw). And that has added another layer of complexity to the tie, which makes it all the more beautiful.

News bulletin

➤ AC Milan’s Primavera side suffered a tough defeat away at Roma on Monday. Ignazio Abate’s men came back from 0-1 behind to 2-1 up thanks to goals from Diego Sia and Dariusz Stalmach in the second half, but the Giallorossi were quick to respond with two goals. The Rossoneri remain in the relegation play-off zone, therefore.

➤ Milan are planning for a revolution in attack. Divock Origi and Ante Rebic could both leave, while a new starting striker will be signed. Lorenzo Colombo will also return from his successful loan at Lecce and act as the third choice behind the new arrival and Olivier Giroud.

➤ The twists and turns have been many regarding Rafael Leao’s renewal but it seems we could be heading towards a solution. Lille have expressed their willingness to help out with the Sporting fine (just over €20m) as they have a 15% resale clause, meaning they want Milan to sell Leao for a hefty figure. The latter would only be possible after a renewal.

➤ Champions League fever is back ahead of the quarter-final clash against Napoli, but how much is at stake economically? A spot would thus give over €20m in extra revenue when factoring in ticket sales and prize money.

➤ The well-known Milan journalist Carlo Pellegatti has made the bold claim that Ante Rebic could be offered up in a swap deal by Paolo Maldini to try and land Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who is tipped to leave Lazio.

➤ Stefano Pioli is expected to make five changes to the starting XI for the game against Napoli, reverting to the starting players we saw in the 4-0 trashing. This means that Simon Kjaer will get the chance from start, as well as Rade Krunic in his more defensive role.

In case you missed it

Make sure to check out the latest podcast episode, while the bonus episode will be up very soon (only available here on Substack!). You can also read our latest bonus article here on Substack about the San Donato area.