The only way is up (?) [Newsletter]

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Sep 05, 2024

AC Milan’s worst start to the season since 1938-39 was a fact on Saturday evening as the game against Lazio ended 2-2. Unfortunately, this is not the only negative achievement for the Rossoneri and it’s clear that Paulo Fonseca has a lot of work to do, especially since player confidence is at an all-time low. Something that started already last season.

We have been doing our best to shift focus from the negativity and, above all, the plethora of negative stats about Fonseca’s Milan. The season is still in its infancy and spreading doomsday messages will do no good at this point. However, at the same time, we just cannot gloss over the stats as they truly put into perspective just how poor the start to the season has been.

Let’s get into a few of them. Since 1984, Fonseca is the only manager to have claimed just two points after the first three games in the debut season. Fabio Capello, Vincenzo Montella and Sinisha Mihajlovic all come close at three points, but they at least managed to grab that crucial first win within the first three games. And this season, it’s even more evident due to the international break.

Furthermore, Milan have conceded at least two goals in each of their first three games for the first time since 1983-84, under the guidance of Ilario Castagner. He didn’t last the entire season and the Rossoneri finished in 8th place. As if this wasn’t enough, the San Siro side have won just 1 of their last 12 games across all competitions. In other words, the situation is as dire as can be.

The last stat certainly proves that Milan have been struggling with their confidence since before Fonseca arrived at Milanello. It could also be why the manager is seeing a completely different team in training versus the games, so this is something we need to keep in mind as we evaluate the 51-year-old. Actual progress was seen in pre-season and sacking him now would make little sense.

A difficult run of games awaits Milan after the break and only after that can we think about Fonseca’s future again. Clearly, the management remains confident in his abilities to turn things around and will back him until the end, though the latter doesn’t necessarily have to be the end of the season. But then again, despite the aforementioned stats, no one wants a sacking at this stage.

Stefano Pioli’s first months, let alone the first five games (1D, 3L), were also very questionable and we all know what happened thanks to a little bit of patience. Though the games against Liverpool and Inter will be very difficult, it’s equally true that they could shake the players back to life and remind them of what it means to wear the shirt.

News Bulletin

➤ Milan Futuro got their first-ever point in Serie C as Francesco Camarda's second-half penalty rescued a 1-1 draw against Carpi in a game where new signing Silvano Vos stood out. The Primavera meanwhile had a tough outing against Genoa, losing 3-1 for their first defeat of the season.

➤ AC Milan Women started their season in the worst possible fashion, losing 1-0 to newly-promoted Como. They outshot their opponents 28 to 7 and had almost two-thirds of the ball, but couldn’t find a way through in new coach Suzanne Bakker’s debut.

➤ The 'cooling break saga' has dominated the headlines since the 2-2 draw against Lazio, with Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao at the centre of it. La Gazzetta dello Sport provided a full breakdown of the aftermath, including a face-to-face chat with Paulo Fonseca and a call from Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

➤ Milan had a busy transfer deadline day by their usual standards as the signing of Tammy Abraham and the exit of Alexis Saelemaekers were simultaneously confirmed. Meanwhile, we revealed details of an offer to Adrien Rabiot which several sources are now suggesting has been declined.

➤ One of the issues that will need to be tackled now that the mercato is closed is the renewals of star players. The latest updates regarding contract talks with Mike Maignan seem to be positive, while for Theo Hernandez it appears to be a case of if Milan will break their wage ceiling again.

➤ Our longer reads in the past week include a look at each of Milan's Champions League opponents including their past season and what changed over the summer, a deep-dive on Tammy Abraham and a tactical analysis of the game against Lazio.